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Atomic Football



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AWARDS


For 2008, we did not officially receive any Prediction Tracker awards since we trailed the "betting line" or computer average in most categories. However, among individuals, we finished FIRST in "mean square error" (accuracy), FIRST in "absolute error," and FIRST in "percent correct." Not a bad year at all.

For 2009, again no awards. Among individuals, we were FIRST in "mean absolute error" for the second half of the season and even beat the "opening line." We also finished second or third among individuals in four other categories. Again, still a good year.

For 2010, again no awards. Among individuals, we were FIRST in "mean absolute error" for the season. We also finished third among individuals in one other category.

PRESS

Here are some newspaper articles that have been written about AtomicFootball. See what others are saying about our rating system.

  • 22 October 2006 PDF
  • 8 July 2007 PDF
  • 9 July 2007 PDF

CONTACT

Please check out our site and let us know what you think. Comments and suggestions are welcome.

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Win-Loss Based Rating
Click here for the
Win-Loss Based Rating
Hybrid Rating
Click here for the
Hybrid Rating

Our Ratings

The Win-Loss Based Rating uses only win-loss, schedule, and venue (home/away) data. Thus, margin of victory is not a factor. The downside of such an approach is that all games are reduced to a single bit of data. The upside is that it is not possible to compensate for a loss in one game by running up the score in another. Given that the objective of the game is to win and to do so against quality opponents, we feel that the Win-Loss Based Rating is the best measure of how well a team fulfills the game's primary objectives. Note that the Win-Loss Based Rating has no subjective inputs. See our paper for a lengthy description of how this was achieved.

The Hybrid Rating consists of a simple linear combination of our Win-Loss Based Rating and our Score-Based Rating. The latter component uses only scores, schedule, and venue (home/away) data. The only subjective input is the relative weight given to the two components. Individually, the component ratings themselves have no subjective inputs. Note that we do not separately publish the Score-Based Rating, but it is the basis for our score and win predictions, and we hope at some point in the future to publish in complete detail the methods employed in generating them.

Our rankings can also be tracked on Ken Massey's Ranking Comparison (FBS, FCS) under the symbols "ABC" and "ASH." Be aware that we don't do preseason rankings -- it just isn't consistent with our obsession with objectivity. You will have to wait until about the fourth or fifth week of the season before the rankings will be published. Our predictions, on the other hand, are available from the first week of the season.

Archives

Year Game Data Win-Loss Based Rating Hybrid Rating
2013 CSV HTML HTML
2012 CSV HTML HTML
2011 CSV HTML HTML
2010 CSV HTML HTML
2009 CSV HTML HTML
2008 CSV HTML HTML
2007 CSV HTML HTML
2006 CSV HTML HTML
2005 CSV HTML HTML
2004 CSV HTML HTML
2003 CSV HTML HTML
2002 CSV HTML HTML
2001 CSV HTML HTML
2000 CSV HTML HTML
1999 CSV HTML HTML
1998 CSV HTML HTML

Game Data Format

The game data files contain ASCII text in Comma Separated Value (CSV) format. Each file contains all the game data for a given year. Each row of the file contains the data for a single game. The fields on each line are as follows:

  • Year - Integer value for the 4 digit year the game is played. (range 19xx .. yyyy)
  • Month - Integer value for the month the game is played. (range 1 .. 12)
  • Day - Integer value for the day the game is played. (range 1 .. 31)
  • Home Field Status - Character value (H or N) indicating Home field or Neutral site.
  • Away Team ID - Unique integer identification number for the away team.
  • Home Team ID - Unique integer identification number for the home team.
  • Away Team Score - Integer value for the away team's score. Value is set to -1 for an unplayed game.
  • Home Team Score - Integer value for the home team's score. Value is set to -1 for an unplayed game.
  • Away Team Name - Name string for the away team.
  • Home Team Name - Name string for the home team.
 

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