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MadALwx's Data Passes Quality Control
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MadALwx's Forecast Accuracy Report on Temperatures vice NWS

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), MadAL WxSim Generated (WS)

I run 4 comparison routines throughout the day to determine the accuracy timeframe of when a forecast is made.
Day+"x" are extended forecasts. Models are run at 6am, 11am, 3pm, and 7pm.

NWSs forecast for this area is w/in Forecast Goal     MadALwx's forecast is w/in Forecast Goal
Morning Comparison (this forecast period is 4 days, 6AM today through Day +3)
Updated: 09-07-11 at 6:29 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-07-11 69   73 53   51 75   75 54   49 79   76 56   51 81   79 58   53
09-06-11 63 60 64 55 57 53 73   69 56   51 76   75 57   51 78   75 58   52
09-05-11 71 72 72 61 57 61 71 60 64 56 57 51 74   72 58   51 77   72 60   53
09-04-11 83 81 86 68 67 72 75 72 77 62 57 68 74 60 71 60 57 62 74   72 60   56
09-03-11 96 95 95 73 73 73 85 81 87 69 67 73 80 72 81 65 57 71 75 60 74 61 57 63
09-02-11 96 96 94 69 70 70 95 95 94 71 73 72 87 81 88 67 67 72 81 72 77 62 57 64
09-01-11 95 96 94 72 70 73 96 96 93 72 70 75 94 95 91 73 73 72 89 81 87 67 67 71
08-31-11 94 94 94 70 72 73 95 96 92 69 70 71 95 96 91 69 70 70 95 95 90 69 73 70
08-30-11 94 94 89 69 69 65 94 94 91 70 72 68 95 96 91 71 70 70 95 96 91 71 70 70
08-29-11 91 91 87 63 64 62 93 94 90 68 69 66 95 94 91 70 72 68 95 96 88 70 70 67
08-28-11 91 90 86 61 65 63 89 91 86 58 64 61 93 94 89 65 69 66 94 94 91 69 72 68
08-27-11 92 91 88 66 64 64 89 90 85 62 65 61 90 91 86 63 64 61 93 94 90 67 69 67
08-26-11 95 96 91 67 67 67 91 91 87 66 64 65 88 90 84 63 65 62 90 91 85 65 64 61
08-25-11 97 95 93 70 71 68 95 96 91 65 67 67 90 91 86 65 64 65 88 90 81 63 65 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 6 11 7 9 1 9 4 8 0 8 4 7 0 6 2
% Succ 92.3   46.2 84.6   53.8 75.0   8.3 75.0   33.3 72.7   0.0 72.7   36.4 70.0   0.0 60.0   20.0
Ave Error 1.0   2.8 1.5   2.2 2.0   4.1 2.4   3.8 3.4   5.9 2.1   3.5 3.8   6.5 2.2   3.7
Net Error 0.5   -1.4 -0.2   -0.2 1.0   -1.6 -0.6   0.3 1.9   -1.0 0.3   1.0 2.6   -1.5 0.0   -0.3
Std Dev 0.9   2.0 1.3   1.8 3.0   2.1 1.8   3.0 4.3   3.8 2.4   4.1 5.1   4.8 2.1   2.9

Afternoon2 Comparison (this forecast period is 4 days, 11AM today through Day +3)
Updated: 09-07-11 at 11:24 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-07-11 69   73 53   51 75   75 54   49 79   76 56   51 81   79 58   53
09-06-11 63 60 64 55 57 53 73   69 56   51 76   76 57   51 78   75 58   53
09-05-11 70 72 72 61 57 61 71 60 64 56 57 51 74   72 58   51 77   72 60   53
09-04-11 83 81 86 68 67 72 75 72 77 62 57 68 74 60 71 60 57 62 74   72 60   56
09-03-11 96 95 95 73 73 73 85 81 87 69 67 73 80 72 81 65 57 71 75 60 74 61 57 63
09-02-11 96 96 94 69 70 70 95 95 94 71 73 72 87 81 88 67 67 72 81 72 77 62 57 64
09-01-11 95 96 94 72 70 73 96 96 93 72 70 75 94 95 91 73 73 72 89 81 87 67 67 71
08-31-11 94 94 94 70 72 73 95 96 92 69 70 71 95 96 91 69 70 70 95 95 90 69 73 70
08-30-11 94 94 89 69 69 65 94 94 91 70 72 68 95 96 91 71 70 70 95 96 91 71 70 70
08-29-11 91 91 87 63 64 62 93 94 90 68 69 66 95 94 91 70 72 68 95 96 88 70 70 67
08-28-11 91 90 86 61 64 63 89 91 86 58 64 61 93 94 89 65 69 66 94 94 91 69 72 68
08-27-11 92 91 88 66 64 64 89 90 85 62 64 61 90 91 86 63 64 61 93 94 90 67 69 67
08-26-11 95 96 91 67 67 67 91 91 87 66 64 65 88 90 84 63 64 62 90 91 85 65 64 61
08-25-11 97 95 93 70 71 68 95 96 91 65 67 67 90 91 86 65 64 65 88 90 81 63 64 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 6 11 7 9 1 10 4 8 0 8 5 7 0 6 2
% Succ 92.3   46.2 84.6   53.8 75.0   8.3 83.3   33.3 72.7   0.0 72.7   45.5 70.0   0.0 60.0   20.0
Ave Error 1.1   2.8 1.5   2.1 2.0   4.1 2.3   3.7 3.4   5.9 2.0   3.5 3.8   6.5 2.1   3.6
Net Error 0.5   -1.4 -0.1   -0.1 1.0   -1.6 -0.5   0.3 1.9   -1.0 0.4   1.1 2.6   -1.5 0.1   -0.2
Std Dev 0.9   2.0 1.2   1.8 3.0   2.1 1.8   3.0 4.3   3.8 2.4   4.1 5.1   4.8 2.1   2.9

Evening Comparison (this forecast period is 4 days, 3PM today through Day +3)
Updated: 09-07-11 at 3:24 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-07-11 69   74 54   54 75   74 54   52 79   76 56   52 81   78 58   53
09-06-11 63 60 64 56 57 53 72   69 55   51 75   76 57   51 79   75 58   53
09-05-11 69 72 71 57 57 60 67 60 63 56 57 53 76   71 57   52 77   73 58   54
09-04-11 83 81 74 68 67 70 75 72 74 62 57 61 74 60 73 60 57 63 74   73 60   63
09-03-11 96 95 95 73 73 72 83 81 87 69 67 72 75 72 76 61 57 60 71 60 70 57 57 55
09-02-11 96 96 95 69 70 71 95 95 94 71 73 73 87 81 87 70 67 72 81 72 76 66 57 64
09-01-11 95 96 93 72 70 72 96 96 91 72 70 71 94 95 90 73 73 71 88 81 87 67 67 70
08-31-11 93 94 92 71 72 70 95 96 91 70 70 70 95 96 91 70 70 70 95 95 86 69 73 68
08-30-11 94 94 90 68 69 68 94 94 90 70 72 70 95 96 90 70 70 69 95 96 90 71 70 69
08-29-11 91 91 89 62 64 63 93 94 89 68 69 67 95 94 91 71 72 69 95 96 91 71 70 70
08-28-11 91 90 88 62 64 63 90 91 85 62 64 61 93 94 89 69 69 66 94 94 88 70 72 67
08-27-11 92 91 90 66 64 65 89 90 85 61 64 62 88 91 84 63 64 60 93 94 88 68 69 66
08-26-11 95 96 93 66 67 69 91 91 87 66 64 66 88 90 83 63 64 62 90 91 86 61 64 62
08-25-11 97 95 93 71 71 68 95 96 90 65 67 68 90 91 86 65 64 65 88 90 81 62 64 60
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 11 8 13 9 10 2 10 8 7 0 8 5 7 0 7 4
% Succ 84.6   61.5 100.0   69.2 83.3   16.7 83.3   66.7 63.6   0.0 72.7   45.5 70.0   0.0 70.0   40.0
Ave Error 1.2   2.5 1.1   1.9 1.4   4.3 2.0   2.2 3.1   6.0 1.3   2.7 3.3   6.6 2.3   3.2
Net Error 0.3   -1.8 -0.3   -0.1 0.6   -2.5 -0.2   0.0 1.3   -1.8 0.7   0.0 2.1   -2.6 -0.1   -1.2
Std Dev 1.0   1.9 0.7   1.1 1.9   2.3 1.4   1.7 4.0   4.0 1.5   2.1 4.1   4.5 2.9   2.7

Night Comparison (this forecast period is 4 days, 7PM tonight through Day +3)
Updated: 09-06-11 at 6:31 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-06-11 56   56 72   72 55   52 75   74 57   52 79   76 58   49 81   77
09-05-11 57 57 58 67 72 62 56   52 76   72 57   49 77   74 58   55 77   72
09-04-11 69 67 68 73 81 73 65 57 59 76 72 75 62   61 76   72 61   62 78   75
09-03-11 73 73 72 83 95 84 69 67 70 75 81 74 61 57 59 71 72 64 57   56 74   67
09-02-11 69 70 72 95 96 95 71 73 75 87 95 88 70 67 74 81 81 84 66 57 66 78 72 69
09-01-11 72 70 68 96 96 90 72 70 71 94 96 92 73 73 73 88 95 86 67 67 73 84 81 83
08-31-11 71 72 70 95 94 91 70 70 70 95 96 90 70 70 75 95 96 91 69 73 71 88 95 86
08-30-11 68 69 72 94 94 90 70 72 73 95 94 91 70 70 72 95 96 91 71 70 70 94 96 89
08-29-11 62 64 64 93 91 89 68 69 68 95 94 91 71 72 69 95 94 91 71 70 69 95 96 91
08-28-11 62 64 65 90 90 87 62 64 63 93 91 90 69 69 68 94 94 92 70 72 69 95 94 92
08-27-11 66 64 68 89 91 86 61 64 66 88 90 85 63 64 62 93 91 88 68 69 66 94 94 91
08-26-11 66 67 71 91 96 88 66 64 68 88 91 84 63 64 63 90 90 86 61 64 62 93 91 89
08-25-11 71 71 72 95 95 91 65 67 68 90 96 86 65 64 64 88 91 84 62 64 61 90 90 84
08-24-11 72 69 72 98 95 94 69 71 69 93 95 86 65 67 66 91 96 84 62 64 64 88 91 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 9 8 3 10 10 7 1 9 8 8 1 7 5 6 3
% Succ 92.3   69.2 61.5   23.1 83.3   83.3 58.3   8.3 81.8   72.7 72.7   9.1 70.0   50.0 60.0   30.0
Ave Error 1.3   1.9 3.0   5.1 2.3   1.7 3.2   5.4 1.2   2.2 1.9   5.5 2.5   2.9 2.5   4.6
Net Error 0.1   1.2 -2.1   -5.1 0.0   1.0 -1.8   -4.9 0.3   0.7 -1.4   -5.0 -0.3   0.1 -0.1   -4.2
Std Dev 0.9   1.3 3.6   3.3 2.1   1.2 2.4   3.0 1.4   2.2 2.1   3.6 2.8   3.1 2.5   3.5
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